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High-wage points and CEC cut-offs: what to expect in the next 1–3 and 4–8 months

A report built on IRCC draw data and our poll: how far the CEC cut-off may rise after November 3, how fast it settles, and where different candidates land. Based on the final 1,245 poll votes.

Published October 17, 2026 · Based on the final 1,245 poll votes · IRCC data up to October 15, 2026

Key numbers

  • Latest CEC cut-off: 519 (2026-10-15)
  • Expected after November 3, with normal-size rounds: 540–549, middle estimate 545 (+26)
  • CEC candidates who gain points: about 35%–46% (IRCC data)
  • Based on 957 poll voters in listed occupations (1,245 votes in total)

1. Where CEC cut-offs have been

Every dot is a CEC round since 2023; the bars underneath show how many people were invited. The shaded band on the right is our estimate after the change.

510520530540550202520262027Job offer points removedNov 3 change2024-05-31 · cut-off 522 · 3,0002024-07-17 · cut-off 515 · 6,3002024-07-31 · cut-off 510 · 5,0002024-08-14 · cut-off 509 · 3,2002024-08-27 · cut-off 507 · 3,3002024-09-19 · cut-off 509 · 4,0002024-10-09 · cut-off 539 · 5002024-10-22 · cut-off 539 · 4002024-11-13 · cut-off 547 · 4002024-11-19 · cut-off 539 · 4002025-01-08 · cut-off 542 · 1,3502025-01-23 · cut-off 527 · 4,0002025-02-05 · cut-off 521 · 4,0002025-05-13 · cut-off 547 · 5002025-06-12 · cut-off 529 · 3,0002025-06-26 · cut-off 521 · 3,0002025-07-08 · cut-off 518 · 3,0002025-08-07 · cut-off 534 · 1,0002025-09-03 · cut-off 534 · 1,0002025-10-01 · cut-off 534 · 1,0002025-10-28 · cut-off 533 · 1,0002025-11-12 · cut-off 533 · 1,0002025-11-26 · cut-off 531 · 1,0002025-12-10 · cut-off 520 · 6,0002025-12-16 · cut-off 515 · 5,0002026-01-07 · cut-off 511 · 8,0002026-01-21 · cut-off 509 · 6,0002026-02-17 · cut-off 508 · 6,0002026-03-03 · cut-off 508 · 4,0002026-03-17 · cut-off 507 · 4,0002026-03-31 · cut-off 509 · 2,2502026-04-14 · cut-off 515 · 2,0002026-04-28 · cut-off 514 · 2,0002026-05-27 · cut-off 518 · 3,0002026-06-23 · cut-off 516 · 4,0002026-07-07 · cut-off 517 · 2,0002026-07-21 · cut-off 516 · 2,0002026-08-05 · cut-off 516 · 3,0002026-08-18 · cut-off 523 · 1,0002026-09-01 · cut-off 521 · 2,0002026-09-15 · cut-off 519 · 2,0002026-09-29 · cut-off 518 · 2,0002026-10-15 · cut-off 519 · 2,500Invitations per round2024-05-31 · 3,0002024-07-17 · 6,3002024-07-31 · 5,0002024-08-14 · 3,2002024-08-27 · 3,3002024-09-19 · 4,0002024-10-09 · 5002024-10-22 · 4002024-11-13 · 4002024-11-19 · 4002025-01-08 · 1,3502025-01-23 · 4,0002025-02-05 · 4,0002025-05-13 · 5002025-06-12 · 3,0002025-06-26 · 3,0002025-07-08 · 3,0002025-08-07 · 1,0002025-09-03 · 1,0002025-10-01 · 1,0002025-10-28 · 1,0002025-11-12 · 1,0002025-11-26 · 1,0002025-12-10 · 6,0002025-12-16 · 5,0002026-01-07 · 8,0002026-01-21 · 6,0002026-02-17 · 6,0002026-03-03 · 4,0002026-03-17 · 4,0002026-03-31 · 2,2502026-04-14 · 2,0002026-04-28 · 2,0002026-05-27 · 3,0002026-06-23 · 4,0002026-07-07 · 2,0002026-07-21 · 2,0002026-08-05 · 3,0002026-08-18 · 1,0002026-09-01 · 2,0002026-09-15 · 2,0002026-09-29 · 2,0002026-10-15 · 2,5008,000

Since 2025 the cut-off has stayed roughly between 515 and 550. Small rounds land higher, large rounds lower.

2. What happened after past rule changes

Rule changeLast rounds beforeFirst rounds after
Nov 2016: job offer points cut from 600 to 50/200 (all-program rounds)472 → 470497 → 475 → 468 → 459 → 453 → 447
Mar 2025: job offer points removed (CEC rounds)527 → 521547 → 529 → 521 → 518 → 534 → 534

Two patterns repeat:

  • The first round after a change tends to jump. It is often smaller, and many candidates compete for few spots.
  • Within 1–3 months the line settles, at a level set mostly by how many people IRCC invites per round.

3. Who gains points

Poll votersIRCC: CEC invitees 2025–262× (+70)11%10%1.5× (+40)72%62%1.3× (+20)17%28%

In IRCC’s own data, 35%–46% of the people invited in CEC rounds in 2025–2026 worked in occupations that are now on the high-wage list. Most of them are in the 1.5× level (+40). Our voters lean even more toward that level (72%) than IRCC’s data does (62%).

4. The crowd moves up

439–443444–448449–453454–458459–463464–468469–473474–478479–483484–488489–493494–498499–503504–508509–513514–518519–523524–528529–533534–538539–543544–548549–553554–558559–563564–568569–573574–578579–583584–588589–593594–598599–603440–444445–449450–454455–459460–464465–469470–474475–479480–484485–489490–494495–499500–504505–509510–514515–519520–524525–529530–534535–539540–544545–549550–554555–559560–564565–569570–574575–579580–584585–589590–594595–599440460480500520540560580600Latest cut-off 519Estimate 545Before Nov 3After (estimate)CRS score

Each bar counts the candidates in a 5-point band: before November 3 on the left, after the bonus on the right. The highlighted bars are the people above the cut-off. There are about as many on each side, because each round invites about the same number of people. Many more candidates sit just below the cut-off than above it, so when a large share of them gains 20–70 points at once, a lot of people pass the old cut-off together, and the line has to move up to about 545 before the number above it is back to normal. That is why the cut-off rises more than the average bonus.

5. Short term: the first 1–3 months (November 2026 – January 2027)

IRCC will pause rounds for up to two weeks while it recalculates every profile. What happens next depends mostly on round size:

ScenarioInvitationsEstimated CEC cut-off
Normal round≈ 2,250540–549
Catch-up round after the pause (2×)≈ 4,500518–534
Smaller rounds (½)≈ 1,150559–567
  • Normal round (about 2,250): around 540–549.
  • A larger catch-up round: closer to 518–534.
  • Smaller rounds, like the first CEC round after the 2025 change (500 people): 559–567.

6. Medium term: months 4–8 (February – June 2027)

5205405605801,0002,0003,0004,0005,000Invitations per CEC roundTypical round ≈ 2,250 → 5452025-01-08 · 1,350 · 5422025-01-23 · 4,000 · 5272025-02-05 · 4,000 · 5212025-05-13 · 500 · 5472025-06-12 · 3,000 · 5292025-06-26 · 3,000 · 5212025-07-08 · 3,000 · 5182025-08-07 · 1,000 · 5342025-09-03 · 1,000 · 5342025-10-01 · 1,000 · 5342025-10-28 · 1,000 · 5332025-11-12 · 1,000 · 5332025-11-26 · 1,000 · 5312025-12-16 · 5,000 · 5152026-03-03 · 4,000 · 5082026-03-17 · 4,000 · 5072026-03-31 · 2,250 · 5092026-04-14 · 2,000 · 5152026-04-28 · 2,000 · 5142026-05-27 · 3,000 · 5182026-06-23 · 4,000 · 5162026-07-07 · 2,000 · 5172026-07-21 · 2,000 · 5162026-08-05 · 3,000 · 5162026-08-18 · 1,000 · 5232026-09-01 · 2,000 · 5212026-09-15 · 2,000 · 5192026-09-29 · 2,000 · 5182026-10-15 · 2,500 · 519Actual CEC rounds, 2025–26 (before the change)Estimate after the change

The bonus does not wear off. New candidates keep arriving, and IRCC’s data suggest a similar share of them will be in high-wage jobs, so the cut-off is likely to stay around the new level and move mostly with round size. The band shows our estimate for each round size; the grey dots are actual CEC rounds in 2025–2026, before the change.

Two forces to watch:

  • Upward: people who reach 12 months in a high-wage job over the coming months get their bonus then.
  • Downward: if IRCC invites more people per CEC round in 2027.

7. Where different candidates land

Your CRS todayNot on the list1.3× (+20)1.5× (+40)2× (+70)
480480unlikely500unlikely520unlikely550likely
490490unlikely510unlikely530unlikely560likely
500500unlikely520unlikely540borderline570likely
510510unlikely530unlikely550likely580likely
520520unlikely540borderline560likely590likely
530530unlikely550likely570likely600likely
540540borderline560likely580likely610likely

Each cell is your score after November 3, compared with the estimated range for a normal-size round: likely is above the range, borderline is inside it, unlikely is below it. If your occupation is not on the list, your score does not change, so other ways to raise it (a better language result, French, a provincial nomination) matter more than before.

How we estimated this

  • Each CEC round invites about the same number of people. A share of candidates gains points by level, moves ahead, and the score of the last person invited is the new cut-off.
  • The share who gain points comes from IRCC open data on CEC invitees by occupation, matched to the high-wage list with Statistics Canada’s NOC concordance. The level mix comes from this poll.
  • The number of candidates at each score comes from IRCC’s latest pool distribution (2026-10-12). IRCC reports 501–600 as one band, so we spread it out once steeply and once gently; the range covers both.
  • Round-size scenarios assume a round twice as large reaches twice as many people.
  • Not included: job offer points, whether people have the full 12 months, and changes to IRCC’s category-based rounds.
Calculate your new CRS scoreOur CRS calculator is updated for the November 3 rules: pick your occupation and see your score under the new and old rules side by side.Open the CRS calculator → Poll results Voting has closed. See which high-wage occupations readers are in. See the poll results →

Data: IRCC [1] IRCC [2] IRCC [3]

This is our estimate, not an IRCC prediction, and not legal or immigration advice.

For professional immigration planning, consult a licensed immigration consultant (RCIC) or an immigration lawyer, and don’t rely on information found online.

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Next: High-wage points are coming: ten years of immigration and draw trends, and what they mean for study, work and learning French →